EUR/USD Retraces Gains on NFP Data

Talking Points

• The

  EUR/USD

  Traders Lower Post

  NFP

• Bullish Breakouts Begin Over 1.1431

• 
  SSI
  

  Reads at an Extreme -2.39

EUR

/

USD

30 Minute Chart

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

What is next for the Euro and

US Dollar

?

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The EUR/USD has retraced its early gains on better than expected NFP data. Forecasts for today’s NFP event were set at 205k. However, the figures beat expectations and were released at 215k. This caused the EUR/USD to immediately to sell off from its high of the day at 1.1437. Now

prices

are currently trading back below todays’ R3 pivot point which is found at a price of 1.1403. This decline has opened up prices action to test values of support. This includes today’s S3 pivot which is acting as range support at a price of 1.1347.

If the EUR/USD’s bullish momentum resumes, traders may again look for bullish breakout opportunities above the R4 pivot point at 1.1431. While the pair’s first attempt to breakout higher has failed, a second attempt may set the pair to close the week towards new weekly highs. By extrapolating 1X today’s 56 pip range, initial bullish targets begin at 1.1487.

SSI (

speculative sentiment index

) for the EUR/USD is reading at -2.39. This value remains at a negative extreme, and when taken as a contrarian signal suggests further advances for the pair. With 70% of positioning currently short, if the EUR/USD attempts to mount a bearish reversal, traders should look for SSI to taper off towards a more neutral value.

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