Canada Housing Market Sees Busiest Quarter in 20 Years
Canada’s housing market experienced a particularly active fourth quarter, marking one of the busiest periods in the last two decades, according to data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Sales volume jumped by 19.2% compared to the same time last year, signaling a potentially significant rebound in sales activity anticipated for 2025. Despite a seasonally adjusted 5.8% month-over-month decline in home sales during December, figures revealed a substantial increase relative to the preceding months, with sales remaining 13% above levels observed in May, prior to the Bank of Canada’s initial interest rate reductions.
Analysts at CREA predict a substantial surge in demand this spring, anticipating that interest rates will reach their lowest point and that sellers will begin listing properties in greater numbers. TD economist Rishi Sondhi characterized December as a “subdued month” regarding sales volume, noting it’s typically a period of reduced activity. However, he highlighted the potential for increased activity in Ontario and British Columbia, where he believes “significant pent-up demand” remains, coupled with the anticipated impact of federal mortgage rule changes. Sondhi’s report emphasizes the inherent uncertainty within the macroeconomic backdrop, citing potential tariff threats as a factor impacting market forecasts.
As of the end of December, approximately 128,000 properties were listed for sale nationwide, representing an increase of 7.8% compared to the end of 2023. While this represents a growth in supply, it remains below the historical average of 150,000 listed properties observed during this time of year. The number of newly listed properties decreased by 1.7% month-over-month. The CREA chair, James Mabey, stated that while market activity may experience a temporary slowdown during the winter months due to reduced supply, the rebound seen in the fall market provides a valuable preview of what could unfold in the spring. Mabey indicated that spring in real estate typically arrives earlier than anticipated for both sellers and buyers, and anticipates a surge in buyer activity in the coming months.
The overall market remains subject to external factors and forecasts are contingent upon continued uncertainty.
