Atlantic Provinces Projected to See Growth Surge, Think Tank Reports
Atlantic provinces poised for economic growth, according to a new think tank assessment
A recently released report from the Conference Board of Canada indicates that the Atlantic provinces—particularly Prince Edward Island—are expected to experience robust economic growth in the coming years. The outlook is fueled by a combination of factors, including stabilizing service sector activity, rising exports from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, and a surge in residential construction on Prince Edward Island. The report projects overall national growth of 1.9 per cent for this year, climbing to 2.1 per cent in 2020. However, the Atlantic provinces are expected to significantly outperform the national average, with Prince Edward Island leading the way.
The Conference Board’s analysis points to Prince Edward Island’s strong potential, forecasting a remarkable 3.2 per cent growth rate for this year—a figure that would be the highest among all provinces. This ambitious projection is largely attributed to a significant influx of international migrants seeking new opportunities on the Island, alongside increased demand for Island-produced goods and bolstering tourism. The report notes that this population boom is driving up residential construction, creating a vibrant environment for new housing developments. “Over the next two years, the Island should outpace nearly every other province in the country when it comes to its rate of population growth. Consequently, the construction industry is set to surge this year, thanks to new housing developments on the Island,” stated the Conference Board. This positive outlook has translated into a recent surplus in Prince Edward Island’s provincial budget, a welcome change after a decade of deficits.
Looking beyond Prince Edward Island, the report projects growth for the other Atlantic provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador is anticipated to experience a 2.7 per cent growth rate this year, though the Conference Board acknowledges the volatility within the oil industry and predicts a more modest growth of just one per cent for 2020. Labor market challenges remain a significant concern for Newfoundland and Labrador due to factors such as the retirement of baby boomers and the migration of skilled workers to other provinces in search of greater opportunities. Nova Scotia is also poised for stronger economic growth, with projections of 1.6 per cent growth this year, followed by 2.1 per cent in 2020. This growth is driven by robust seafood exports and improved demographics as a result of increased immigration—including people coming from across Canada and internationally. Furthermore, the Conference Board highlights a significant shift in the province’s economic landscape, estimating that Nova Scotia is expected to experience its highest economic growth in almost a decade.
New Brunswick, which recorded anemic growth of 0.2 per cent last year, is predicted to see a turn around with a growth 1.4 per cent anticipated for this year, and another 1.3 per cent expected next year. However, the report identifies a key hurdle: New Brunswick’s demographic challenges. While immigration levels have reached record highs, they are not enough to offset the continued outflow of residents to other provinces and a negative natural increase – where the number of births is lower than the number of deaths. The Conference Board emphasizes that addressing this demographic weakness is crucial for sustained economic prosperity. Nationally, the overall outlook remains positive, with growth expected in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, but with slower growth anticipated in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and Manitoba. The Conference Board’s findings underscore the diverse economic opportunities available across Canada, and the Atlantic provinces are positioned to be major beneficiaries of the country’s continued growth trajectory.
