Stock Trader’s Year-End Strategy Drives Strong Market Returns
Erik Smolinski, a financially independent stock trader, has cultivated a highly successful trading strategy centered around meticulous after-action reviews – a process he believes is critical for both professional traders and everyday investors seeking to maximize their returns. Smolinski, a Marine veteran who transitioned to full-time trading in 2007, has developed a disciplined approach built on detailed record-keeping, strategic adjustments, and frequent performance assessments. His system, encompassing monthly and annual reviews, has enabled him to achieve impressive results, including a remarkable average return of 24.6% between 2018 and 2022, a standout year in 2023 featuring triple-digit gains, and a projected 79% return in 2025. Business Insider has independently verified the scope of Smolinski’s achievements through examination of screenshots of his trading summary statements.
At the heart of Smolinski’s strategy lies a commitment to ongoing evaluation. He maintains a comprehensive trading plan and a detailed trading log, meticulously documenting every transaction and its impact on his portfolio. This information then fuels his after-action reviews, where he systematically analyzes his performance, identifies successes and shortcomings, and formulates strategies for improvement. Smolinski prioritizes monthly reviews, allocating approximately two weeks for a more in-depth annual assessment. This structured approach allows him to proactively adapt to evolving market conditions and avoid becoming complacent with historically effective strategies. A key element of his system is the recognition that market dynamics shift over time; what worked in the past—for example, the prolonged dominance of growth stocks over large-cap stocks—may no longer hold true. Smolinski explicitly cautions against blindly adhering to outdated assumptions, stressing the importance of regularly checking if existing strategies remain aligned with current market realities, particularly with the increasing influence of technology within the market landscape over the last half-decade.
The process of an after-action review isn’t merely about tracking numbers; it’s about fostering a strategic mindset. Smolinski’s system mirrors the operational practices of larger businesses, utilizing quarterly earnings reports as a benchmark for assessing performance. He emphasizes that this framework – an AAR – is equally applicable to the everyday investor. By comparing his portfolio’s returns against established indices such as SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, and GLD, investors can objectively gauge their performance and determine if their investment strategy is appropriately calibrated. If a particular mutual fund, for instance, is generating higher costs and lower returns, Smolinski advises investors to proactively consider a change, demonstrating a vital element in managing long-term portfolio success.
To facilitate this process, Smolinski advocates for scheduling dedicated time for AARs, suggesting a weekend slot to minimize distractions and allow for focused analysis. He underscores the need to treat this time with respect, avoiding procrastination or dismissal. The initial step involves a careful examination of returns, establishing a baseline against which to measure progress and identify potential areas for adjustment. Ultimately, Smolinski’s approach emphasizes that consistent monitoring, strategic adaptation, and a willingness to reassess are essential components of any successful investment strategy—whether one is a full-time trader or an individual investor aiming to achieve their financial goals.
