Wall Street Sees Buying Opportunity in MP Materials Rare Earth Stock
Wall Street has been increasingly focused on rare earth stocks, spurred by significant government investments in U.S.-based companies. A particular stock has garnered considerable attention – MP Materials (MP) – primarily due to its status as the leading rare earth company in the United States and the recipient of initial government investment. MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine, located near the border of Nevada, and secured a $9.6 million technology investment in November 2020, followed by a $400 million equity stake in July 2025. Subsequently, the company signed a $500 million agreement with Apple (AAPL). These developments ignited market interest, leading to a substantial rise in MP stock from its trough in May 2025 to a peak in October 2025, representing an increase of over 310%. Since then, the stock has experienced a correction of nearly 30%, currently trading at $57.
Several analysts anticipate further upward momentum. Deutsche Bank analyst Corinne Blanchard recently increased her price target from $68 to $71, coupled with an upgrade from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy” rating. Blanchard justified the upgrade by asserting that MP Materials stock is finally trading at its fundamental value, representing a favorable entry point for investors seeking exposure to a promising sector within the United States. She emphasized the company’s suitability, describing it as "a great thematic, in a great sector here in the U.S.” Blanchard’s reasoning centered on the belief that the stock price has declined to a level where the associated risks are outweighed by the potential for gains. MP Materials stands as “the only player in the West as a fully integrated Rare Earth company.”
The Deutsche Bank analyst highlighted that the company’s CEO anticipates a turning point regarding cash flow, production levels, and profitability during the current quarter. This outlook aligns with Blanchard’s assessment, emphasizing the company’s expected benefits from the government’s established $110 per kilogram floor price for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide—nearly double the current market price. The company’s Q3 2025 results indicated a 51% increase in NdPr production, with projections targeting a return to profitability in Q4 2025, followed by heavy rare earth commissioning by mid-2026.
Analyst estimates project a transition quarter in Q3 2025, anticipating increased earnings in Q4 2025, with year-over-year growth of 164.29% and 193.75% respectively through to year-end 2025 and 2026. The highest end of the earnings estimates indicates an EPS of $0.96 in Q4 2026. Investors are paying approximately 45 times forward 2026 earnings based on the highest estimate. The extended timeline of the government agreement and the potential for accelerated production growth are seen as key factors justifying a premium valuation for MP stock. At present, analysts’ highest price target stands at $112, representing over 92% upside potential from the current trading level, while the average price target of $81.58 indicates a 41% increase.
