2025 air cargo market poised for growth
This story was originally published on
Supply Chain Dive
. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily
Supply Chain Dive newsletter
.
Dive Brief:
Dive Insight:
Last year wrapped up with a 14th consecutive month of double-digit demand growth, with December volumes climbing 11% year over year, Xeneta reported. Global spot rates during the month stood at $2.99 per kilogram, up 15% YoY. Compared to the same period in 2023, December saw the slowest growth rates pricing-wise in seven months.
China-to-U.S. rates didn’t measure up to 2023’s peak season highs in December, possibly attributed to increased scrutiny on the corridor and the strategic allocation of capacity. Instead, those rates in early January were down 9% from its mid-December 2024 peak of $5.61 per kilogram. E-commerce scrutiny, strategic cargo capacity allocation and possible
frontloading
over possible Trump tariffs may have dampened rates on the China-U.S. corridor.
December air freight by the numbers
11%
YoY percentage increase in global air cargo volume
$2.99
The average spot rate per kilogram
62%
The global dynamic load factor, up three percentage points
YoY
, which measures the volume and weight of cargo flown, as well as available capacity.
Contract trends are also changing. In 2024, shippers preferred
longer-term air freight contracts
of a year or longer, according to Xeneta. During the same timeframe, freight forwarders negotiated nearly half of their volumes in the spot market, which negatively affected revenues due to higher air carrier rates.
Meanwhile, the possibility of another round of strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports didn’t significantly push the pendulum on modal shifts from ocean to air freight in December, per the report. The
tentative six-year agreement
between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance reached Jan. 8 only further curbed concerns of a spike in air cargo activity. The
three-day strike in October
only
pushed volumes up
12% from Europe to the U.S., compared from the month prior.
However, further disruptions in ocean freight may still prompt shippers to turn to air cargo for greater predictability, Xeneta reported.
What
2025 has in store
for the air cargo market remains a “guessing game for many less informed market players,” said van de Wouw.
“Will January 2025 be the first time in 14 months we won’t see double digit growth?” he asked. “At the start of last year, the answer would most likely have been affirmative, but now the market must wait and see what happens because this year is starting off with a much higher base.”
Recommended Reading
